Employment of indications and warning methods to forecast potentially hostile revolutions in military affairs

摘要

The basic premise of a Revolution in Military Affairs is that changes in technology doctrine, and organization have the ability to render existing methods of warfare obsolete. Two distinct visions of a future RMA are beginning to emerge within the defense community. The first involves the integration of precision guided munitions, and superior command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence (C4I) capabilities. The second vision is of information warfare. In this arena, the control and management of bits and bytes becomes more important than bullets. Because of the potential advantages gained from the realization of an RMA, it is imperative that the United States detects, and accurately evaluates, any efforts by a potential adversary to achieve a RMA - whatever form it may take. Indications and Warning (I & W) intelligence is a process used by the intelligence community to detect indicators of potential threats while sufficient time exists to counter those same threats. This thesis examines 'how' and 'why' technology, doctrine, and organizations change in order to develop indicators that can be used to detect an emerging RMA.