The impacts of weather forecasts on military operations a system for conducting quantitative near-real time analyses

摘要

We have developed, tested, and operationally implemented a web based system for collecting and analyzing in nearreal time weather forecast and observational data to assess: (a) the performance of forecasts; and (b) the operational impacts of forecasts. A major goal of the system is to quantify the impacts of weather forecasts on the planning, execution, and outcomes of military operations. Our tests and implementation were focused on the METOC support provided by Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Detachment (NPMOD) Fallon to Naval Strike and Air Warfare Center (NSAWC) operations at Naval Air Station Fallon. Data are collected by NPMOD Fallon and entered via a web interface into a database at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) where the data are analyzed and results are reported in near-real time. The results include quantitative assessments of: (1) forecasts used in planning NSAWC missions; (2) changes made during mission planning in response to forecasted weather; (3) deviations from mission plans that occurred in response to weather conditions actually encountered; (4) positive and negative impacts on missions due to forecasts; (5) METOC Tactical Decision Aid forecast accuracy and mission impacts; and (6) forecast performance and mission impacts with respect to specific weather factors.