An upgradeable agent-based model to explore non-linearity and intangibles in peacekeeping operations

摘要

Peacekeeping operations (PKO) have become a significant challenge to the German Armed Forces. For the development of tactics, techniques, procedures and equipment with combat operations, agent-based models have been developed, used and exploited for many years. Modeling and simulation of PKO, however, is still in a very early stage. This thesis develops an agent-based model to analyze PKO. Unlike many other multi-agent systems (MAS), it implements the rules of discrete event simulation. The chosen software architecture makes the model upgradeable and useful for a breadth of future applications. The modelâ s open architecture and the underlying principle of loosely coupled components make it easy to change or enhance the model. The software agentsâ design incorporates individuality, which is characterized by personality factors. Furthermore, the model is data-farmable. Required data inputs into the simulation tool, i.e., PKO scenarios, are formatted utilizing a state-of-theart technology called Extensible Markup Language (XML), which facilitates use of the data in nearly all computer software packages. The model executes multiple runs of multiple scenarios automatically, demonstrating a robust nature. Finally, an exemplary analysis demonstrates data-farming concepts on the effect of personality factor settings on the potential escalation of a PKO scenario.