A possible solution for the U.S. Navy's addiction to petroleum a business case analysis for transitioning the U. S. Navy from petroleum to synthetic fuel resources

摘要

Considering the variable cost of petroleum, it is fiscally prudent for the Department of the Navy (DON) to consider alternative energy sources for propulsion. The cost of petroleum fuels for the DON have increased fifty-five percent from 2004 to 2005 and the increase is equivalent to the annual cost of over seven thousand personnel or three littoral combat ships. For the near-term and mid-term futures (five to thirty years), these alternative energy sources must be compatible with current power systems. The Chief of Naval Operations Strategic Studies Group XXV (SSG) proposed a Navy Synthetic Fuels Program (NSFP) which recommended embarking on a public-private venture to make synthetic fuels to satisfy the U.S. Navy's needs. This thesis examines one aspect of SSG's NSFP by specifically investigating the construction and operating costs of a coal to liquid synthetic fuel plant using domestic coal resources. The purpose of this study is to show the conditions where domestic coal to liquid (CTL) fuel production facility investment is financially practical, as well as those where it is financially impractical. This analysis develops cost estimates, provides business case analysis and reviews global estimates for developing a coal to liquid synthetic fuel production facility. It identifies and qualifies risks and sensitivities. It also examines various projected coal and crude oil markets and how each case influences the decision to pursue a synthetic fuel program. It concludes with a decision matrix comparing the pursuit of a synthetic fuel program with maintaining the status quo of the use of fuel from petroleum.