Improving government's retirement plan investments by using mining tools for discovery of price patterns and combining methods of fundamental and technical analysis

摘要

There are many tools available to government fund managers for making investment decisions, especially regarding the retirement options available to US service members, including Social Security, Military Retirement, Traditional Individual Retirement Accounts, Roth Individual Retirement Accounts and Uniformed Services Thrift Savings Plan. This project concentrates on both long and short term investments by exploiting the combination of two types of investment methods. The first is to predict the future directions of prices by discovering the patterns of prices. The other is to combine fundamental and technical analysis successfully, which requires the study of their relationship. The project consists of two independent parts. The first part introduces a knowledge representation model that codifies stock price movements in binary format and then applies proper data mining techniques in order to discover profitable patterns of four candlesticks. The second part seeks to answer the question: "If there are relationships between technical and fundamental analysis, can strategies to increase investment returns be developed?