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Towards a decision support system for flood management in a river basin

机译:建立流域洪水管理决策支持系统

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摘要

A platform for flood forecasting (FEWS-LIMA) in the Portuguese river Lima basin was implemented applying Delft-FEWS software. This platform integrates SOBEK Sacramento hydrological model, SOBEK rivers hydrodynamic models (working together in predicting river hydrodynamics behaviour), and a comprehensive hydrological database. The calibration of these models was achieved using historical river flow data of different rainfall events for two different periods: after the dams construction and before its construction. Models predictions use rainfall time series as input data obtained from Numerical Weather Prediction models. The performance of forecasting platform was verified in real rainfall events, using a backcasting approach for four flood events occurred in the years 2006, 2010, and 2011 in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the modelled processes. In addition, a forecasting event was also considered in order to show the applicability of this methodology in future situations. It was verified, in this case study, that the obtained results have a high correlation to the actually measured typical flood hydraulic parameters.
机译:应用Delft-FEWS软件在葡萄牙利马河流域建立了洪水预报平台(FEWS-LIMA)。该平台集成了SOBEK萨克拉曼多水文模型,SOBEK河流水动力模型(共同预测河流水动力行为)和综合水文数据库。这些模型的校准是使用两个不同时期的不同降雨事件的历史河流流量数据实现的:水坝建设之后和建造之前。模型预测使用降雨时间序列作为从数值天气预报模型获得的输入数据。在2006年,2010年和2011年发生的四次洪灾事件中,使用后推法对真实降雨事件中的预报平台的性能进行了验证,以证明建模过程的准确性。此外,还考虑了一个预测事件,以显示该方法在未来情况下的适用性。在本案例研究中,已验证所获得的结果与实际测量的典型洪水水力参数具有高度相关性。

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