Recent data shows that the recession will have led to a 10 per cent permanent loss of UK output in a few years time. Simon Wren-Lewis investigates this puzzle and discusses some of the potential explanations; including, the possibility that hysteresis effects [i.e. the possibility that high unemployment increases the rate of unemployment below which inflation begins to accelerate] may have operated more quickly than anyone thought, the survey data is simply wrong, and that underlying labour productivity has fallen.
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