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Speculative attacks and financial architecture: experimental analysis of coordination games with public and private information

机译:投机攻击和金融架构:带有公共和私人信息的协调游戏的实验分析

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摘要

Speculative Attacks can be modeled as a coordination game with multiple equilibria if the state of the economy is common knowledge. With private information there is a unique equilibrium. This raises the question whether public information may be destabilizing by allowing for self-fulfilling beliefs. We present an experiment that imitates a speculative attacks model and compare sessions with public and private information. In both treatments subjects use so-called threshold strategies that lie in between the risk dominant and payoff dominant equilibrium of the underlying complete information game. Our evidence suggests that there are no destabilizing effects due to public information. In contrary, predictability of attacks is slightly higher with public than with private information, but prior probability of attacks is also higher with public information. We also test the predictive power of refinement theories to explain actual behavior and reactions to parameter changes.
机译:如果经济状况是公知常识,则可以将投机性攻击建模为具有多重均衡的协调博弈。有了私人信息,就有了独特的平衡。这就提出了一个问题,即通过允许自我实现的信念,公共信息是否会破坏稳定。我们提出了一个模仿投机攻击模型的实验,并将会话与公共和私人信息进行了比较。在这两种方法中,受试者都使用所谓的阈值策略,该阈值策略位于潜在的完整信息博弈的风险支配与收益支配之间。我们的证据表明,由于公共信息而不会产生破坏作用。相反,公共信息的攻击的可预测性比私人信息的攻击的可预测性要高一些,但是公共信息的攻击的先验概率也更高。我们还测试了精炼理论的预测能力,以解释实际行为和对参数变化的反应。

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