A matter of time: reassessing the occurrence of conflict and the role of institutions in transboundary freshwater resources using event history analysis

摘要

The study of international conflict and cooperation over shared freshwater has been advanced by the application of large N data sets and statistical methods to study these relationships. This thesis builds on this body of knowledge in two ways. First, because of the time-series nature of the data, it adopts event history analysis methodologies to refine previous research. Second, it explores the role of international institutions in mitigating conflict between countries that share freshwater resources. The results of the statistical models generally support the need to adopt new methodologies and provide a more detailed understanding of duration dependence. Furthermore, the results of the models are generally in line with the proposed hypotheses. In terms of the impact of international institutions, the models point to the pacifying effects of international institutions. Nevertheless, further research is necessary to clarify the relationship between shared freshwater resources, conflict and the role of international institutions.