Investigating greenhouse gas emission pathways In selected OECD countries using a hybrid energy-economy approach

摘要

This report outlines the development and analysis of CIMS OECD-EPM. CIMS OECD-EPM is a hybrid energy-economy model that forecasts energy consumption and GHG emissions in 28 OECD countries from 2005 to 2050. In the absence of climate change mitigation policy, growth forecasts for energy consumption and GHG emissions are moderate, far below that projected for non-OECD regions. With its unique framework, which incorporates technological detail, macroeconomic feedbacks and behavioural realism, CIMS OECD-EPM is used to simulate the impact of abatement policies on the region. Initial results suggest that significant emission reductions can be achieved. Development of carbon capture and storage, nuclear and energy-efficient technologies in the electricity and industrial sectors are the primary drivers of abatement in the region. Overall, abatement activity in OECD-EPM is likely to be more costly than in other world regions; high marginal abatement costs and high levels of technological development limit incremental mitigation activity.