In-river backwards run reconstruction of Fraser River sockeye fisheries from 2002 - 2009 and initial validation of the Fraser River Salmon Management Model (FRSMM)

摘要

Management of Fraser River sockeye is becoming increasingly complicated due to environmental and fishery change. To assist managers I develop an in-river backwards run reconstruction to provide Conservation Unit (CU) specific harvest rates and arrival abundance at Steveston from 2002 – 2009. Annual total harvest rates vary from a low of 4.5% (2009) to a high of 34.7% (2004), while CU specific harvest rates vary from a low of 0.1% for Chilliwack (2007) to a high of 45.3% for the Early Summer Shuswap complex (2004). Harvest rates of Cultus Lake sockeye, a population of concern, never exceed 12.9% (2006). I then provide a coarse validation of the Fraser River Salmon Management Model (FRSMM), and find that FRSMM arrival timing at Mission is simulated to within +/- 2.5 days for 90% of CUs at the 50th percentile, while FRSMM harvests can differ by up to +/-30%.