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Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s

机译:汇率与1930年代的经济复苏

摘要

Currency depreciation in the 1930s is almost universally dismissed or condemned. It is credited with providing little if any stimulus for economic recovery in the depreciating countries and blamed for transmitting harmful beggar-thy-neighbor impulses to the rest of the world economv. In this paper we argue for a radically different interpretation of exchange-rate policy in the 1930s . We document first that currency depreciation was beneficial for the initiating countries. It worked through both the standard supply- and demand-side channels suggested by modern variants of the Keynesian model. We show next that there can in fact be no presumption that currency depreciation in the 1930s was beggar-thy-neighbor policy. Rather, an empirical analysis of the historical record is needed to determine whether the impact on other countries was favorable or unfavorable. We conclude provisionally on the basis of this analysis that the foreign repercussions of individual devaluations were in fact negative -- that the depreciations considered were beggar-thy-neighbor. As we point out, however, this finding does not support the conclusion that competitive devaluations taken by a group of countries were without benefit for the system as a whole. We argue to the contrary -- that similar policies, had they been even more widely adopted, would have hastened recovery from the Great Depression.
机译:1930年代的货币贬值几乎被普遍驳回或谴责。它被认为几乎没有提供任何刺激措施,以促进贬值国家的经济复苏,并被指责将有害的以乞thy为邻的冲动传递给世界其他经济体。在本文中,我们主张对1930年代的汇率政策做出根本不同的解释。我们首先记录下来,货币贬值对发起国有利。它通过凯恩斯模型的现代变体建议的标准供需渠道进行工作。接下来,我们表明,实际上不能假设1930年代的货币贬值是“以邻为壑”的政策。相反,需要对历史记录进行实证分析,以确定对其他国家的影响是有利还是不利。在此分析的基础上,我们暂时得出结论,即外国对个人贬值的影响实际上是负面的-所考虑的贬值是邻里乞be。但是,正如我们指出的那样,这一发现并不支持这样的结论,即一组国家采取的竞争性贬值对整个系统没有好处。相反,我们认为,类似的政策,如果被更广泛地采用,将会加速从大萧条中复苏。

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  • 年度 1984
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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