Prise en compte des fluctuations spatio-temporelles pluies-débits pour une meilleure gestion de la ressource en eau et une meilleure évaluation des risques

摘要

To reduce vulnerability and to increase resilience of nowadays societies to heavy precipitations and floods require better understanding of their very strong spatio-temporal variability observable over a wide range of scales. Therefore, throughout this thesis we highlight the methodological interest of a multifractal approach as being most appropriate to analyze and to simulate such the variability. This thesis first discusses the problem of data quality, which strongly depends on the effective temporal resolution of the measurements, and its influence on multifractal analysis determining the scaling laws of precipitation processes. We emphasize the consequences for operational hydrology. We present the SERQUAL procedure that allows to quantify the data quality and to select periods corresponding to the required quality criteria. A surprising result is that long chronological series of rainfall often have an effective hourly data, rather than the pretended 5-minute rainfall data. Then, this thesis focuses on the selected data to characterize the temporal structure and extreme behaviour of rainfall. We analyze the sources of uncertainties of already "classical" multifractal methods for the parameter estimates, and we therefore developed their improvements considering e.g., the finite size of data samples and the limitation of sensor dynamics. These improvements are used to obtain proper multifractal characteristics of 5-minute high-resolution rainfall for several French departments (i.e., 38, 78, 83 and 94), and hence to raise the question of preicipitation evolution during the last decades in the context of climate change. This study is reinforced by the analysis of radar mosaics for three major events in the Paris region. Finally, this thesis highlights another application of the developed methods, i.e. for the karst hydrology. We discuss the multifractal characteristics of rainfall and runoff processes observed at the different resolutions in two karst watersheds on the south of France. Using daily, 30-minute and 3-minute measurements we analyse the rainfall-runoff relationships within the multifractal framework. This is a major step towards defining a rainfall-runoff multi-scale model of the karst watershed functioning