Mise au point d'une méthode d'utilisation d'un modèle pluie-débit conceptuel pour la prévision des crues en temps réel

摘要

The present research is concerned with real-time flood forecasting based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling. The model used is GR3J model developed with daily time step. The first part of the study has focused on validation of the model using hourly data and analysis of the model parameters: response surface, sensibility and variability. Founded upon the precedent step, a new methodology for adjusting model parameters has been worked out in the second part of the study. It is characterized by: 1) operational framework in which the adjustment is carried out over a short period in connection with the continuous operation of the model, 2) objective function involving the last two forecast errors and parameters deviations and 3) joint adjustment of model parameters with model state. The methodology has been tested on two French experimental basins.