Air Pollution and Emission Reductions over the Po-Valley: Air Quality Modelling and Integrated Assessment

摘要

The Po-valley located in northern Italy at the footstep of the Alps is characterized by a high density of anthropogenic emissions (inhab) and by the frequent occurrence of stagnant meteorological conditions. The area has therefore been identified as one hot spot place where pollutant levels will remain problematic in spite of application of the current European legislation devoted to air pollution control. By 2020, health impact on population and effects on ecosystems by ozone and eutrophication are indeed calculated to be amongst the highest in Europe and anthropogenic fine particulate matter levels are expected to be responsible for a loss of ten months of life expectancy. In general, long-range transported air pollution in the Po-Valley represents only a fraction of 30-40%, stressing the importance of local control measures in the area to efficiently reduce the impact of air pollution.In the frame of a collaboration agreement between the JRC (Joint Research Centre of the European Commission) and the government of the Lombardy region, a Model Inter-comparison exercise over the PO-valley (POMI) is organised to explore the changes in urban air-quality predicted by different air quality models in response to changes in emissions in the Po-Valley. POMI focuses on ambient levels of ozone and PM. Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction (MTFR) Emission scenarios are analysed at different spatial scales together with a set of ¿in-between¿ emission reductions corresponding to the application of regional air-quality plans over the Po-Valley and in particular over the Lombardy region. In parallel to this model inter-comparison exercise, an integrated assessment tool is being developed to design and assess the effectiveness of regional abatement policies. This tool is planed to make use of information available at the local/regional scale (technological costs, emission factors¿) and to allow investigating the efficiency of both technical and non-technical abatement measures. POMI is expected to provide information useful for the development of sectoral regional source relationships and for better accounting of the different sources of model-related uncertainties (emissions, meteorology¿) in the assessment of efficient strategies. In this work, an overview of the structure of the regional integrated assessment tool will be provided and its links with the POMI modelling exercise discussed.