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Methodologies to assess human-induced land change processes relevant to land degradation under different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions

机译:在不同的气候变化和社会经济条件下评估与土地退化有关的人为土地变化过程的方法

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摘要

Land degradation is a complex concept encompassing a variety of processes, natural or human induced, that affect the functioning of the land and the providing of ecosystem services. We propose a methodology to evaluate the impacts of future scenarios of socio-economic pathways and representative forcing pathways on land degradation. We selected a limited set of human induced land change processes that could potentially lead to land degradation and combined them spatially for each scenario. We compared the concurring variables between scenarios and over time to assess the sensitivity of the scenarios to the land change processes relevant for land degradation. With the processes or potential issues and the scenarios used in this study on Latin America end the Caribbean, we found (1) that the differences over time were much larger than those between scenarios and (2) that the effect of climate change was negligible compared to the socio-economic effect. Further investigation with more variables dependent on the climate scenarios is needed to confirm the results.
机译:土地退化是一个复杂的概念,涉及自然或人为诱发的各种过程,这些过程会影响土地的功能和生态系统服务的提供。我们提出了一种方法,以评估未来社会经济途径和代表性强迫途径对土地退化的影响。我们选择了一组有限的人为诱发的土地变化过程,这些过程有可能导致土地退化,并针对每种情况在空间上进行组合。我们比较了情景之间和随时间变化的一致变量,以评估情景对与土地退化相关的土地变化过程的敏感性。鉴于本研究在拉丁美洲到加勒比海地区结束时所使用的过程或潜在问题以及情景,我们发现(1)随时间的差异远大于情景之间的差异;(2)与之相比,气候变化的影响可以忽略不计对社会经济的影响。需要进一步调查,更多变量取决于气候情景,以确认结果。

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