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Meteorological Droughts in Europe: Events and Impacts: Past Trends and Future Projections

机译:欧洲的气象干旱:事件和影响:过去的趋势和未来的预测

摘要

Observational records from 1950 onwards and climate projections for the 21st century provide evidence that droughts are a recurrent climate feature in large parts of Europe, especially in the Mediterranean, but also in western, south-eastern and central Europe. Trends over the past 60 years show an increasing frequency, duration and intensity of droughts in these regions, while a negative trend has been observed in north-eastern Europe. With a changing climate, this tendency is likely to be reinforced during the 21st century, affecting a wide range of socioeconomic sectors.The report provides a detailed description of the characteristics of drought events (i.e. their frequency, duration, intensity, severity) across Europe, and their evolution over the period 1950 to 2012, as well as projections until the end of the 21st century. A pan-European database of meteorological drought events for the period 1950-2012 and of their related sectorial impacts was built and a framework developed that links drought severity to expected damages under present and future climate.
机译:从1950年开始的观测记录和对21世纪的气候预测提供了证据,证明干旱是欧洲大部分地区(特别是在地中海地区)以及西欧,东南欧和中欧反复出现的气候特征。过去60年的趋势表明,这些地区的干旱发生频率,持续时间和强度在增加,而在东北欧则观察到负面趋势。随着气候的变化,这种趋势可能会在21世纪得到加强,影响到广泛的社会经济部门。该报告详细描述了整个欧洲干旱事件的特征(即频率,持续时间,强度,严重程度) ,以及它们在1950年至2012年期间的演变以及直到21世纪末的预测。建立了一个泛欧的1950-2012年气象干旱事件及其相关部门影响的数据库,并开发了一个框架,该框架将干旱严重程度与当前和未来气候下的预期损失联系起来。

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