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Development of the Statistical Tool for Operating Events Database AnalysisOperating Events Ranking Tool OPERATE

机译:开发用于操作事件数据库分析的统计工具操作事件排名工具

摘要

This report contains a specification and implementation description for the statistical tool (desktop software program) which will allow detailed reporting and flexible ranking of operational events. The program is named Operational Events Ranking Tool (OPERATE). The initiating idea was that detail statistical reporting with a robust and consistent way of selecting most important events for more detailed investigation is very important. This provides better insight and saves the need for complete detail investigation which is neither feasible nor useful. It allows also to identify events trends and patterns across large databases.The foundation for the statistical reporting and ranking is defined by the events parameters which are the base for reporting, grouping and ranking. This requires that each event should have characterisation which allows use of selected parameters for grouping and ranking. The set of parameters could be in general user-defined, but for initial OPERATE implementation a fixed set of parameters is defined based on the WANO operating experience programme and the IRS coding schemes. Five parameters are used for events grouping: Activity, Direct cause, Systems, Components, and Root cause & Causal factor. Seven parameters are used for ranking: Frequency, Trend, Extension, Multiple, Safety, Category and Consequences. Some other parameters are used for statistics reports and future criteria (e.g. Vendor, Reactor type, Time of event, Status and Group of staff).An important part of the implemented method is the way how ranking indexes are calculated. This is done in a consistent way based on previous experience and new research. OPERATE allows for each ranking index to be valued on the basis of relative importance determined by the experts' judgement evaluated with analytical hierarchy process (AHP). In this way weighting is easily determined and the importance of different parameters could be consistent. The tool is capable of analysing ranking for all groupings based on the expert and AHP determined relative importance. In order to investigate the ranking confidence (uncertainty and sensitivity), the tool can analyse ranking for user-selected variations of parameters importance (e.g. ±30% weighting for all ranking indexes etc.). This is useful to determine the sensitivity of the results, which could expose the criticality of certain ranking parameters and respected weights. In addition to ranking results OPERATE is able to produce nineteen different reports about events (e.g. frequencies for all parameters values on yearly and average base, etc.) which could help further focus on experts investigation. In parallel to the program development five years of US NRC LERs events (2007-2011) has been characterised in order to demonstrate and verify the tool. These results are presented in the report. OPERATE is a very flexible tool with potential for further use and development.
机译:该报告包含统计工具(台式机软件程序)的规范和实施说明,这将允许详细报告和对操作事件进行灵活排名。该程序名为“操作事件排名工具”(OPERATE)。最初的想法是,详细的统计报告非常重要,它采用一种健壮且一致的方式选择最重要的事件进行更详细的调查。这样可以提供更好的见解,并且无需进行既不可行也不有用的完整详细调查。它还可以识别大型数据库中的事件趋势和模式。统计报告和排名的基础由事件参数定义,这些参数是报告,分组和排名的基础。这就要求每个事件都应具有特征,允许使用选定的参数进行分组和排序。该组参数通常可以由用户定义,但是对于初始OPERATE实施,将基于WANO操作经验程序和IRS编码方案定义一组固定的参数。五个参数用于事件分组:活动,直接原因,系统,组件以及根本原因和因果关系。七个参数用于排名:频率,趋势,扩展,多重,安全,类别和后果。其他一些参数用于统计报告和将来的标准(例如供应商,反应堆类型,事件时间,状态和人员组)。已实现方法的重要部分是如何计算排名指数。这是根据以前的经验和新的研究以一致的方式完成的。 OPERATE允许根据专家重要性的相对重要性来对每个排名指数进行评估,而专家的判断是通过层次分析法(AHP)进行评估的。这样,可以轻松确定权重,并且不同参数的重要性可以保持一致。该工具能够根据专家和AHP确定的相对重要性来分析所有分组的排名。为了调查排名的置信度(不确定性和敏感性),该工具可以分析用户选择的参数重要性变化的排名(例如,所有排名指数的权重为±30%等)。这对于确定结果的敏感性很有用,它可以揭示某些排名参数和受权重的重要性。除了对结果进行排名外,OPERATE还可以针对事件生成19种不同的报告(例如,所有参数值的频率(基于年度和平均基准)等等),可以帮助进一步集中于专家调查。在程序开发的同时,对美国NRC LER事件(2007-2011)的五年进行了特征分析,以演示和验证该工具。这些结果显示在报告中。 OPERATE是一种非常灵活的工具,具有进一步使用和开发的潜力。

著录项

  • 作者

    SIMIC ZDENKO;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 ENG
  • 中图分类

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