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The Effect of Oil Prices and Regime Switches On Real Effective Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Markov Regime Switching Approach

机译:石油价格和制度转变对巴基斯坦实际有效汇率的影响:马尔可夫制度转变方法

摘要

Abstract. This study takes into the account relationship between oil prices and real effective exchange rate by using different exchange rate regimes in Pakistan. In this study following (Meese & Rogoff, 1988) and (Throop,1993) Interest Rate Parity has been used to construct a model by using real effective exchange rate, Dubai crude oil price and interest rate differential from period of 1970m01 to 2014m03. Through examining the results all variables are found to be integrated of order one. The long run relationship has been examined between real effective exchange rate and Dubai crude oil price in case of all exchange rate regimes with the use of regime dummies and interaction terms except for no regime, two-tier exchange rate regime and unified exchange rate regime. Similarly between real effective exchange rate and interest rate differential long run relationship has been examined in all the exchange rate regimes. Long run and dynamic result has also been detected except for interest rate differential with the use of exogenous exchange rate regime dummies. Oil price impacting exchange rate positively in both long and short run, while interest rate differential negatively effects exchange rate in long run. Through examining the results for impact of exchange rate regime switching on exchange rate, during 1970-2000 structural shifts were causing the change in exchange rate regimes with depreciation being high during this period.Keywords. Interest rate parity, Exchange rate regime, Regime switching, Structural shift and Dubai crude oil price.JEL. E42, E43, F31.
机译:抽象。本研究通过使用巴基斯坦不同的汇率制度考虑了油价与实际有效汇率之间的关系。在这项研究之后(Meese&Rogoff,1988)和(Throop,1993),利率平价被用来建立模型,该模型利用了1970-01年至2014-03年间的实际有效汇率,迪拜原油价格和利率差。通过检查结果,发现所有变量都是一阶积分。在所有汇率制度下,使用制度假人和相互作用项(无政权,两层汇率制度和统一汇率制度除外),研究了实际有效汇率与迪拜原油价格之间的长期关系。同样,在所有汇率制度中都检验了实际有效汇率与利率差长期关系之间的关系。除了使用外在汇率制度假人的利率差异外,还发现了长期和动态的结果。石油价格长期和短期都对汇率产生积极影响,而利率差异从长期来看对汇率产生负面影响。通过研究汇率制度转换对汇率影响的结果,在1970-2000年期间,结构性变化导致汇率制度发生变化,在此期间贬值率很高。利率平价,汇率制度,体制转变,结构性转变和迪拜原油价格。 E42,E43,F31。

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  • 年度 2016
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 入库时间 2022-08-20 20:52:40

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