A Complex Network Approach to Analyze the Effect of Intermediate Waypoints on Collision Risk Assessment

摘要

This paper investigates how estimated collision risk in upper airspacevaries with changes in underlying airspace network complexity. DirectRoute model (which assumes greatcircle route between entry andexit waypoints) and Intermediate Waypoint model (which uses airway-waypoint routes between entry and exit waypoints) were used. One monthof traffic data (more than 200,000 flights) from 12 countries in the MiddleEast was analyzed for collision risk estimates, and the airspace networkwas characterized for several complex network indicators. Results showthat intermediate waypoint leads to a significant increase in collision riskestimates. Results also show the correlation between estimated collisionrisk and specific network complexity measures. From an operational per-spective this means that in airspaces with a highly structured airspace,collision risk may be underestimated when using the widely accepteddirect route model.