Bosnia and Herzegovina : The Challenge of Legitimacy : FAST Country Risk Profile Bosnia and Herzegovina

摘要

The domination of Bosnia’s politics by nationalist parties representing the country’s three constituentpeoples is unlikely to come to an end in the October 1 general election. The marked deterioration ofpolitical discourse in the run-up to the poll highlights the enduring power of zero-sum politics, whichfeed off continuing deep divisions among Bosnia’s citizens. While large-scale violence is highlyunlikely, destabilizing factors in the region - especially the likely independence of Kosovo - arecertain to be exploited by ethnic entrepreneurs and will find some resonance within theirconstituencies. Constitutional and police reform will be required for closer ties with the EU atprecisely the time (first half of 2007) when the Office of the High Representative, the maininternational agency for peace implementation, is phasing out. Whether the pull of Brussels is asufficient substitute for robust international action on the ground remains an open question.