A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

摘要

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involvinguda large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on theudbuilt environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are oftenudnecessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for theirudthermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical.udBased on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective methodudto generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of globaludwarming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition,udit is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnaludmodelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter.udAn example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia isudpresented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or windudcharacters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. Audsensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a goodudlinear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation,udrelative humidity or wind speed.