Characterisation of an airflow network model by sensitivity analysis : Parameter screening, fixing, prioritising and mapping

摘要

Due to the over-parameterised models in detailed thermal simulation programs, modellers undertaking validation or calibration studies, where the model output is compared against field measurements, face dficulties in determining those parameters which are primarily responsible for observed diferences. Where sensitivity studies are undertaken, the Morris Method is commonly applied to identify the most influential parameters. They are often accompanied by uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to generate confidence bounds around the predictions. This paper sets out a more rigorous approach to sensitivity analysis based on a global sensitivity analysis method with three stages: factor screening, factor prioritising and fixing, and factor mapping. The method is applied to a detailed empirical validation dataset obtained within IEA ECB Annex 58, with the focus of the study on the air flow network, a simulation program sub-model which is subject to large uncertainties in its inputs.