LH-moment estimation for statistical analysis on the wave crest distributions of a deepwater spar platform model test

摘要

The design of fixed and compliant offshore platforms requires the reliable estimation of extreme values with small probabilities of exceedance based on an appropriate probability distribution. The Weibull distribution is commonly utilised for the statistical analysis of wave crests, including near-field wave run-ups. The parameters are estimated empirically from experimental or onsite measurements. In this paper, the data set of wave crests from a Spar model test was statistically analysed by using the method of LH-moments for parameter estimation of the Weibull distribution. The root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) and the error of LH-kurtosis were used to examine the goodness-of-fit. The results for the first four LH-moments, the estimated parameters, and the probability distributions showed that the level of the LH-moments has a significant influence. At higher levels, the estimation results gave a more focused representation of the upper part of the wave crest distributions, which indicates consistency with the intention of the method of LH-moments. The low tail RMSE values of less than 2.5% demonstrated that a Weibull distribution model estimated by using high-level LH-moments can accurately represent the probability distribution of large extreme wave crests for incident waves, wave run-ups, and moon pool waves. Goodness-of-fit test on the basis of comparison of sampling LH-kurtosis and theoretical LH-kurtosis was recommended as a procedure for selecting an optimum level.