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Towards improved understanding of the applicability of uncertainty forecasts in the electric power industry

机译:加强对不确定性预测在电力行业中的适用性的了解

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摘要

Around the world wind energy is starting to become a major energy provider in electricity markets, as well as participating in ancillary services markets to help maintain grid stability. The reliability of system operations and smooth integration of wind energy into electricity markets has been strongly supported by years of improvement in weather and wind power forecasting systems. Deterministic forecasts are still predominant in utility practice although truly optimal decisions and risk hedging are only possible with the adoption of uncertainty forecasts. One of the main barriers for the industrial adoption of uncertainty forecasts is the lack of understanding of the information content and standardization of products, which frequently leads to mistrust towards uncertainty forecasts. This paper aims at improving this understanding by establishing a common terminology and reviewing the methods to determine, estimate, and communicate the uncertainty in weather and wind power forecasts. This conceptual analysis of the state of the art highlights that: i) end-users should start to look at the forecast's properties in order to map different uncertainty representations to specific wind energy-related user requirements; ii) a multidisciplinary team is required to foster the integration of stochastic methods in the industry sector. A set of recommendations for standardization and improved training of operators are provided along with examples of best practices.
机译:在世界范围内,风能已开始成为电力市场中的主要能源提供者,并参与辅助服务市场以帮助维持电网稳定性。多年来对天气和风能预报系统的改进极大地支持了系统运行的可靠性以及风能向电力市场的平稳整合。尽管只有采用不确定性预测才能实现真正的最佳决策和风险对冲,但确定性预测仍在公用事业实践中占主导地位。工业上采用不确定性预测的主要障碍之一是缺乏对信息内容和产品标准化的理解,这常常导致对不确定性预测的不信任。本文旨在通过建立通用术语并回顾确定,估计和传达天气和风力预测的不确定性的方法来增进这种理解。对现有技术水平的概念分析强调:i)最终用户应开始查看预报的属性,以便将不同的不确定性表示映射到与风能相关的特定用户需求; ii)需要一个跨学科的团队来促进工业领域中随机方法的整合。提供了一系列有关标准化和改进操作员培训的建议,以及一些最佳实践示例。

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