Collision and re-entry analysis under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

摘要

This paper presents an approach to the design of optimal collision avoidance and re-entry maneuvers considering different types of uncertainty in initial conditions and model parameters. The uncertainty is propagated through the dynamics, with a non-intrusive approach, based on multivariate Tchebycheff series, to form a polynomial representation of the final states. The collision probability, in the cases of precise and imprecise probability measures, is computed considering the intersection between the uncertainty region of the end states of the spacecraft and a reference sphere. The re-entry probability, instead, is computed considering the intersection between the uncertainty region of the end states of the spacecraft and the atmosphere.