An Approach of the Grey System Modelling and Simulation for Complex Systems

摘要

There has been a long histroy of the System Dynamics developed by J.Forrester and its analysis of complex system behaviors. It is necessary to know the detailed system structure and a large amount statistical data to build the flow diagram when using this method. However, our quantitative analysis show that the integrated model can be seen as a combination of many abstracting grey system modeles which may be decomposed from complex system. In this way, the integrated model can be simulated on a computer. The approach of combining quantitative analysis with simulation has the following features, (1) A continuous differential model is established using grey generating numbers. (2) The integrated model can be run on a computer to simulate the system behavior using DYNAMO language. In this paper, the approach of modelling the available abstracting grey dynamic systems and of simulating the integrated systems is described. The system analysis of experimental example show that grey system modelling is very useful in System Dynamics model.