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Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

机译:使用copula函数建模竞争风险生存时间的联合分布

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摘要

The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian copula applied to an incomplete double decrement model which makes it difficult to calculate any actuarial functions and draw relevant conclusions. Here, we extend this methodology by studying the effect of complete and partial elimination of up to four competing risks on the overall survival function, the life expectancy and life annuity values. We further investigate how different choices of the copula function affect the resulting joint distribution of survival times and in particular the actuarial functions which are of importance in pricing life insurance and annuity products. For illustrative purposes, we have used a real data set and used extrapolation to prepare a complete multiple decrement model up to age 120. Extensive numerical results illustrate the sensitivity of the model with respect to the choice of copula and its parameter(s).
机译:考虑了使用copula函数在竞争风险模型中对生存时间的联合分布建模的问题。为了评估这种联合分布和相关的整体生存函数,求解了一个非线性微分方程系统,该系统通过copula关联了建模竞争风险的原始和净生存函数。 Carriere(1994)使用了一种类似的方法来对依赖的多个减量进行建模,他将高斯copula应用于不完整的双减量模型,这使得计算精算功能和得出相关结论变得困难。在这里,我们通过研究完全和部分消除多达四个竞争风险对整体生存功能,预期寿命和年金值的影响来扩展这种方法。我们进一步研究了不同的copula函数选择如何影响最终生存时间的联合分布,尤其是精算函数,这在定价人寿保险和年金产品中很重要。为了说明的目的,我们使用了一个真实的数据集并使用了外推法来准备一个完整的直至120岁的多重减量模型。大量的数值结果说明了该模型对copula及其参数选择的敏感性。

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