Les modèles de microsimulation dynamique dans l’analyse des réformes des systèmes de retraites : une tentative de bilan

摘要

Dynamic microsimulation models provide a means for studying future pension system trends, based on the observed heterogeneity of agents and all the intrinsic non-linearities of pension calculations. They are also capable of integrating results from behavioural microeconometrics. The paper discusses the lessons for pension system analysis that can be drawn from these models. It goes on to consider the nature of dynamic microsimulations and the various sources of estimation errors. It concludes with a review of the main models used in developed countries and a summary of what can be learnt from Insee’s Destinie model.