Au-delà de l'an 2000, s'adapter à une pénurie de main-d'oeuvre

摘要

Adapting to a Shortage of Labor beyond the Year 2000 - The past or present demographic trends in France and almost anywhere in developed countries have an effect which is rather easy to forecast on the job supply: there will be a possible drop if the fertility rate remains at a low level, but also in the case of an ageing population, which seems unavoidable and which has already started. Will this lead to a reversal of the present disequilibrium between the job supply and demand, with the appearance of a labor shortage? If this is the case, some factors could remedy it: continued immigration, an increase in the number of working years or of working women. These adjustments have a varied plausibility. But reaching the ceiling (or the contraction) of labor resources can also be compensated by improved productivity.