Vulnerability of infrastructure to Sea Level Rise: A combined outranking and system-dynamics approach

摘要

In order to develop an adaptation plan for Sea Level Rise (SLR), coastal councils oftenconduct hazard line studies to investigate present and expected future risks on coastal stretches (e.g.,beaches) that harbour various types of infrastructures (e.g., roads, sewerage system, water supply system,electricity, telecom etc). Interdependencies of infrastructure components and systems are frequent withdisruption of services in one, likely to cascade through the infrastructure network and produce a compoundeffect on users. To help decision-makers at a local council in prioritising management actions, wedeveloped an analytical vulnerability assessment tool called EVA-INFRA (Environmental VulnerabilityAssessment for infrastructures) which starts from the IPCC framework of vulnerability and considers thebiophysical impacts of the hazard as well as a measure of its social and institutional dimensions. In thispaper, we describe the incorporation of a system dynamics model inside EVA-INFRA that can quantifythe cascading effects of disruption of any infrastructure component, leading to a more precise assessmentof vulnerability.