Trends as a Concrete Help of Futures Thinking for Organizations - How Could Trends Become Understood and Utilized Better?

摘要

This study focuses on trend analysis and trends in general as a means of helping organizations to get insight of futures. Trends are looked at from a client’s point of view as well as the point of view of a professional trend analyst. Having worked with trends for years in many fields from fashion designer to a journalist and a lecturer specializing in futures trends, I have had the opportunity to observe the field from many different angles. The field of trend research and analysis is vast and overflowing with information. A trend can be anything from a fashion trend to a social trend or a megatrend. The work for this thesis has been conducted using several methods; discussions with the management of organizations, trend professionals, students and others interested in trends. I have interviewed trend analysts and participated in trend seminars and design fairs around the world. Theoretical literature and relevant articles have been looked into. Finally, students have been questioned to gain more information needed for this study. Furthermore, I have observed and scanned for changes, the crucial elements of emerging trends. The research questions of this study are: 1. What is the current understanding of trends?2. Why is it difficult to understand trends and utilize them? 3. How could trends be translated into a more concrete form so that they would be of better use for people/ organizations? Can visuality be of help here? My conclusions are that the field of trends is very broad, context bound, heterogeneous and vague. Even theoretical books and articles use different terminology when they are referring to same matters and vice versa. It has been a surprise to notice how difficult it is even for the management in the design field to understand trends, what they are and where they come from. The contextual review pointed out how highly fragmented and controversial the field is. Trend analysis professionals and strategists are aware of that and therefore actions have been taken to clarify the language, as well as methods of trend research and analysis via networking. There are hunches and tacit knowledge always involved in analyzing trends, obviously solid data from the futures cannot exist, that probably adds to the confusion and adds suspicions towards the subject.Trends need systemic translating by a professional to be understood, not everyone can be or even become a trendspotter. Explaining trends with a broader context to other fields i.e. social, political and financial, helps to gain insight to the matter. Giving existing benchmarks from various fields backing an idea of a useful trend is also a good tool to make trends concrete and more comprehensive. Using visuality; moodboards, pictures and infographics linked with the articulated trend is a crucial element of understanding and making use of them. Last but not least, for an organization to utilize trends, trust is what is needed from the management. Intangible and tacit knowledge are an inseparable part of dealing with the futures, as there is no data available. There is always an element of risk involved when dealing with the possible futures .