Finland is dependent on the electricity import capacity of the neighboring countries during peak demand hours. In addition, a significant amount of condensing power has been dismantled within the Baltic Sea market area during the recent years. The changes raise a question if the current power system is capable to cover the need for electricity at all times both now and in the future.This thesis proposes a probabilistic power adequacy analysis method for the assessment of the Baltic Sea market area based on the use of a power market simulator and Monte Carlo simulation. The method takes stochastically wind power, hydro inflows, demand, CHP and outages of both power plants and interconnectors during each hour of the year into account. As a part of this thesis, a stochastic outage generation tool was introduced which models outages according to a lognormal distribution function.In the thesis, the applicability of the proposed method was evaluated by assessing the power adequacy of Finland with two case studies which showed that the method produces sensible results. According to the results, the power adequacy of Finland decreases during the years 2012–2023 resulting from decreasing thermal capacity of Finland and its neighboring countries. The second study showed that 800 MW reinforcement on the interconnector capacity between North Sweden and Finland would significantly improve the power adequacy level of Finland. This thesis concludes that the method can be used as a tool for long-term power system adequacy analysis in various applications.
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