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Joustavaan energianhallintaan ja aurinkoenergiaan liittyvät liiketoimintamahdollisuudet suomalaisille kotitalouksille

机译:与灵活的能源管理和太阳能相关的芬兰家庭的商机

摘要

The global cumulative solar power generation capacity based on photovoltaic (PV) technology has grown between 2003 and 2013 from 2,82 GW to nearly 137 GW. This equals a stunning, circa fiftyfold, growth in a mere decade. At the same time, the demand for power companies’ electricity sales is expected to be reduced by 14–18 % during the next five years due to the growth of self- generated solar power, while the need for grid balancing services is increasing. This study aims to increase the understanding of the flexible energy management related business models and opportunities for households in Finland, at the same time implementing solar power generation into the equation. The primary focus will be on the hourly consumption, demand response capabilities, and solar production analysis of households in Finland, but other Southern European countries are also covered for comparison. Fundamentals of different models are studied, after which investment and sensitivity analysis are conducted with a selection of realistic scenarios. Business opportunities for households do exist in Finland, however, not yet with attractive returns. Base case analysis showed internal rates of return between -3,0 % and -1,6 % without demand response benefits, and internal rates of return between -0,8 % and 0,3 % with them. Thus, demand response had a significant positive impact on the returns of an investment through regulation trading activities and solar production self-consumption maximization. However, sensitivity analysis showed that high solar system prices coupled with low electricity prices in Finland have a huge impact on the profitability of all scenarios studied. For mature solar markets, Germany and Italy for instance, the returns for similar setups result in internal rates of return between 5,9 % and 11,7 %, which represent attractive returns compared to any other options available for household investments. In fact, a possible best case scenario for Finland also returned an appealing annual return rate of 8,6 %. In future research, actual pilot programs should be conducted and some of the models and results presented in this study should be tested for verification. Additionally, an evaluation for both technical and psychological aspects of the demand response activities should be performed.
机译:基于光伏(PV)技术的全球累积太阳能发电容量在2003年至2013年期间从2,82 GW增加到近137 GW。在短短十年间,这相当于惊人的增长了大约五十倍。同时,由于自发电太阳能的增长,预计未来五年对电力公司电力销售的需求将减少14-18%,同时对电网平衡服务的需求也在增加。这项研究旨在增进对与灵活能源管理相关的商业模式和芬兰家庭机会的理解,同时将太阳能发电纳入其中。主要重点将放在芬兰家庭的小时消耗,需求响应能力和太阳能生产分析上,但也涵盖了其他南欧国家进行比较。研究了不同模型的基本原理,然后进行了选择实际方案的投资和敏感性分析。芬兰确实有家庭的商机,但是回报并不丰厚。基本案例分析显示,内部收益率在-3.0%至-1.6%之间,没有需求响应的好处,而内部收益率在-0.8%至0.3%之间。因此,需求响应通过监管交易活动和太阳能生产自耗最大化,对投资回报产生了显着的积极影响。但是,敏感性分析显示,芬兰太阳能系统价格高企加上电价低廉,对所有研究情景的盈利能力均产生巨大影响。对于成熟的太阳能市场(例如德国和意大利),类似设置的回报率导致内部回报率在5.9%至11.7%之间,与任何其他可供家庭投资的选择相比,这具有可观的回报率。实际上,对于芬兰来说,可能的最佳方案也带来了诱人的年回报率8.6%。在未来的研究中,应该进行实际的试验计划,并且应该对本研究中提出的一些模型和结果进行测试以进行验证。另外,应该对需求响应活动的技术和心理方面进行评估。

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    Keskiväli Heikki;

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  • 年度 2014
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