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The Real and Financial Implications of the Global Saving Glut: A Three-Country Model

机译:全球储蓄狂潮的真实和财务影响:一个三国模型

摘要

The model presented in this paper has two objectives. First, it models global imbalances in a simple way while conserving real and financial approaches. This double approach is necessary because Global Imbalances are due to the conjunction of financial and real phenomena: the increase in the price of commodities, the accumulation of foreign reserves by the Asian central banks, the limited absorption capacity of the OPEC countries, the insuficient development of the Asian financial system and the perception of better returns in the US. The second objective is to model the global saving glut hypothesis and to show its implications. We start with a model which consists of three identical countries and then we replicate the current pattern of global imbalances in introducing three asymmetries: a fixed exchange rate between Asia and the United States, a limited absorption capacity in Asia and endogenous propensity to spend in the United States. In order to avoid the recession linked to the increase of their propensity to import, the United States increase their propensity to spend. This adjustment has a cost: (i) the Global Imbalances grow quickly with an increase of current account imbalances and net foreign assets in both the US and Asia ; (ii) the euro area supports an appreciation of its exchange rate which put it in a long depression.
机译:本文提出的模型有两个目标。首先,它以简单的方式对全球失衡进行建模,同时保留了实际和财务方法。之所以需要这种双重方法,是因为全球失衡是由于金融和实际现象的结合:商品价格上涨,亚洲中央银行积累的外汇储备,欧佩克国家吸收能力有限,发展不足亚洲金融体系的发展以及美国获得更好回报的看法。第二个目标是对全球储蓄过剩假设进行建模并显示其含义。我们从一个由三个相同国家组成的模型开始,然后我们通过引入三个不对称现象来复制当前的全球失衡模式:亚洲和美国之间的固定汇率,亚洲有限的吸收能力以及内在的支出倾向。美国。为了避免与进口倾向增加相关的衰退,美国增加了支出倾向。这种调整的代价是:(i)随着美国和亚洲的经常账户失衡和国外净资产的增加,全球失衡迅速增长; (ii)欧元区支持其汇率升值,这使欧元长期处于低迷状态。

著录项

  • 作者

    Gossé Jean-Baptiste;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2009
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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