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Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study

机译:基于残差的协整和多个确定性结构折断检验:蒙特卡洛研究

摘要

The aim of this paper is to study the performance of residual-based tests for cointegration in the presence of multiple deterministic structural breaks via Monte Carlo simulations. We consider the KPSS-type LM tests proposed in Carrion-i-Silvestre and Sansò (2006) and in Bartley, Lee and Strazicich (2001), as well as the Schmidt and Phillips-type LM tests proposed in Westerlund and Edgerton (2007). This exercise allow us to cover a wide set of single-equation cointegration estimators. Monte Carlo experiments reveal a trade-off between size and power distortions across tests and models. KPSS-type tests display large size distortions under multiple breaks scenarios, while Schmidt and Phillips-type tests appear well-sized across all simulations. However, when regressors are endogenous, the former group of tests displays quite high power against the alternative hypothesis, while the latter shows severe low power.
机译:本文的目的是通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究在存在多个确定性结构性断裂的情况下基于残差的协整测试的性能。我们考虑在Carrion-i-Silvestre和Sansò(2006)以及Bartley,Lee和Strazicich(2001)中提出的KPSS型LM测试,以及在Westerlund和Edgerton(2007)中提出的Schmidt和Phillips型LM测试。 。此练习使我们能够涵盖大量的单方程协整估计量。蒙特卡洛实验揭示了在测试和模型之间的尺寸和功率失真之间的权衡。 KPSS类型的测试在多次中断情况下显示出较大的失真,而Schmidt和Phillips类型的测试在所有模拟中均显示出适当的大小。但是,当回归变量是内生的时,前一组测试对替代假设显示出很高的功效,而后一种测试则显示出严重的低功效。

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    Mogliani Matteo;

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  • 年度 2010
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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