Modelling the potential distribution of three climate zonal tree species for present and future climate in Hungary = Három klímazonális fafaj hazai potenciális elterjedésének modellezése jelenlegi és udjövőbeni klímában

摘要

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were udinvestigated for present and future climates (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) in Hungary. Membership udfunctions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of udthe tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present udand future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional udclimate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21studcentury. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak udstands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech udforests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the udSouthwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey udoak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the udcurrent sessile oak habitats. | The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were udinvestigated for present and future climates (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) in Hungary. Membership udfunctions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of udthe tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present udand future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional udclimate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21studcentury. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak udstands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech udforests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the udSouthwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey udoak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the udcurrent sessile oak habitats.