The punctuality of local public bus transportation contributes to the service quality and has impact on modeudchoice. Appropriate planning and control measures as well as adequate passenger information require efficient analysisudand prediction methods. Advanced fleet tracking systems provide enough data for these research purposes. The mainudfactors that cause schedule deviation has been identified through the analysis of the data. As important time elementsudof the journey time are dwell times at stops, the research focused on it; however, the elaborated database structure isudadequate also for analysis of the other time elements, which coincides with our further research intentions too. Innovativeudmethods based on the historical data have been elaborated for the prediction of dwell times. The essence of theudmethod: multi-variate analysis of the dwell times by exploration of the significant influencing factors, and then predictionudof times based on the factors describing the certain situations. Soundness of the methods has been verified withudexamples, and the results well approximated the real values.
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