A computer simulation of the transmission dynamics and the effects of duration of immunity and survival of persistently infected animals on the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in dairy cattle.

摘要

This paper describes a computer model that mimics the spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection through a closed herd. The model is able to simulate the spread of infection when a persistently infected (PI) animal is introduced into an infection-free herd, and it is used to investigate the role of persistently infected animals, seroconverting animals, loss of PI calves and duration of immunity on the level of infection within the herd. Under typical management conditions one persistently infected animal poses a real threat to a herd, and the prospect of the herd becoming infection free in a 10-year period without intervention is remote. Seroconverting animals are found to be an important source of infection in herds with few immune animals. The increased loss of PI calves is likely to restrict the numbers of PI animals in a herd, and loss of immunity is important since it increases the possibility of a PI calf being born.