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Emerging floaters: pass-throughs and (some) new commodity currencies

机译:新兴浮动货币:转账和(一些)新的商品货币

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摘要

In spite of early skepticism on the merits of floating exchange rate regimes in emerging markets, 8 of the 25 largest countries in this group have now had a floating exchange rate regime for more than a decade. Using parsimonious VAR specifications covering the period of floating exchange rates, this study computes the dynamics of exchange rate pass-throughs to consumer price indices. We find that pass-throughs have typically been moderate even though emerging floaters have seen considerable nominal and real exchange rate volatilities. Previous studies that set out to estimate exchange rate pass-throughs ignored changes in policy regimes, making them vulnerable to the Lucas critique. We find that, within the group of emerging floaters, estimated pass-throughs are higher for countries with greater nominal exchange rate volatilities and that trade more homogeneous goods. These findings are consistent with the pass-through model of Floden and Wilander (2006) and earlier findings by Campa and Goldberg (2005), respectively. Furthermore, we find that the Indonesian Rupiah, the Thai Baht and possibly the Mexican Peso are commodity currencies, in the sense that their real exchange rates are cointegrated with international commodity prices.
机译:尽管人们对新兴市场的浮动汇率制度的优点早有怀疑,但该组25个最大的国家中有8个国家实行浮动汇率制度已有十多年了。本研究使用涵盖浮动汇率期限的简约VAR规范,计算了汇率传递到消费物价指数的动态。我们发现,即使新兴市场的流通者看到了相当大的名义和实际汇率波动,其传递通常也较为温和。先前的估计汇率传递的研究忽略了政策制度的变化,使他们容易受到卢卡斯批评的影响。我们发现,在新兴的流通量组中,名义汇率波动幅度较大且贸易同质商品的国家的估计通过量更高。这些发现与Floden和Wilander(2006)的传递模型以及Campa和Goldberg(2005)的早期发现是一致的。此外,我们发现印尼盾,泰铢甚至墨西哥比索都是商品货币,从某种意义上说,它们的实际汇率与国际商品价格是一致的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kohlscheen Emanuel;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2009
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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