Effects of River Stages and Barge Rates on Illinois Corn and Soybean Basis

摘要

During the drought of 2012 the Midwest suffered one of the worst droughts to date which created adverse effects on multiple sectors of the agriculture economy including river transportation. During the last week of 2012, grain barge movement decreased by 41 percent from the same period in 2011. This thesis identifies the relationship between river stages, barge rates, and Illinois corn and soybean basis. By implementing simple regression techniques, river stages and barge were each used as an independent variable and experimental region basis minus control region basis was used as the dependent variable. Multiple regression techniques combined both river stages and barge rates as independent variables and experimental region basis minus control region basis was used as the dependent variable. Results showed that basis levels were impacted during drought and flood stages. Results also showed that drought and flood stages and barge freight rates also influenced basis levels relative to the control region.