Vegetation management and water yield in a southwestern ponderosa pine watershed: An evaluation of three hydrologic simulation models

摘要

Three hydrologic simulation models of different resolutions were evaluated to determine model response to predicting runoff under changing vegetation cover. Two empirically-based regression models (Baker-Kovner Streamflow Regression Model and ECOSIM) and one multiple component water balance model (Yield) were modified, using FORTRAN 77 and calibrated on a southwestern ponderosa pine ecosystem. Statistical analysis indicate no significant difference between the Baker-Kovner and Yield models, while ECOSIM consistently under predicts by as much as 50 percent from the observed runoff. This is mainly attributed to a sensitivity to the insolation factor. Yield is the best predictor for moderate and high flows, to within 10 and 20 percent respectively. Of the four watershed treatments, the light overstory thinning on Watershed 8 yielded the best response for all three models. This is in contrast to the strip-cut treatment on Watershed 14 which consistently over-predicted, in large part due an inaccurate estimation of snowpack evaporation on the exposed, south-facing strip-cuts. Runoff responses are highly influenced by the precipitation regime, soil and topographic characteristics of a watershed as well as by a reduction in evapotranspiration losses from changes in vegetation cover.