A risk analysis approach to managing groundwater quality in the upper Santa Cruz basin

摘要

Groundwater contamination in the upper Santa Cruz basin may result in human health effects. Contaminants have been identifed and their prospective fates in the environment have been projected. A groundwater flow and solute transport model is used to predict spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants over a 50-year period. A risk analysis framework is used to evaluate prospective groundwater contamination effects and options for groundwater quality management. Spatial and temporal distributions of contamination, exposure potential, and expected health effects are examined. Uncertainties are identified and dealt with by placing bounds on all uncertain parameters. It is shown that little health risk is expected from predicted groundwater contamination; however, local contamination events may lead to unexpected risks to human health. Results of the analysis may be used in making groundwater quality management decisions.