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DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY IN DYNAMIC MULTI-STAGE ATTACKER-DEFENDER GAMES

机译:动态多阶段攻击防御游戏中的不确定性决策

摘要

This dissertation presents efficient, on-line, convergent methods to find defense strategies against attacks in dynamic multi-stage attacker-defender games including adaptive learning. This effort culminated in four papers submitted to high quality journals and a book and they are partially published. The first paper presents a novel fictitious play approach to describe the interactions between the attackers and network administrator along a dynamic game. Multi-objective optimization methodology is used to predict the attacker's best actions at each decision node. The administrator also keeps track of the attacker's actions and updates his knowledge on the attacker's behavior and objectives after each detected attack, and uses this information to update the prediction of the attacker's future actions to find its best response strategies. The second paper proposes a Dynamic game tree based Fictitious Play (DFP) approach to describe the repeated interactive decision processes of the players. Each player considers all possibilities in future interactions with their uncertainties, which are based on learning the opponent's decision process (including risk attitude, objectives). Instead of searching the entire game tree, appropriate future time horizons are dynamically selected for both players. The administrator keeps tracking the opponent's actions, predicts the probabilities of future possible attacks, and then chooses its best moves. The third paper introduces an optimization model to maximize the deterministic equivalent of the random payoff function of a computer network administrator in defending the system against random attacks. By introducing new variables the transformed objective function becomes concave. A special optimization algorithm is developed which requires the computation of the unique solution of a single variable monotonic equation. The fourth paper, which is an invited book chapter, proposes a discrete-time stochastic control model to capture the process of finding the best current move of the defender. The defender's payoffs at each stage of the game depend on the attacker's and the defender's accumulative efforts and are considered random variables due to their uncertainty. Their certain equivalents can be approximated based on their first and second moments which is chosen as the cost functions of the dynamic system. An on-line, convergent, Scenarios based Proactive Defense (SPD) algorithm is developed based on Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) to solve the associated optimal control problem.
机译:本文提出了一种有效的,在线的,收敛的方法,可以在包括自适应学习在内的动态多阶段攻防游戏中找到针对攻击的防御策略。这项工作最终产生了四篇论文,这些论文被提交给高质量的期刊和一本书,并且被部分出版。第一篇论文提出了一种新颖的虚拟游戏方法,以描述攻击者与网络管理员之间通过动态游戏进行的互动。多目标优化方法用于预测攻击者在每个决策节点上的最佳动作。管理员还跟踪攻击者的行为,并在每次检测到攻击后更新其对攻击者的行为和目标的了解,并使用此信息更新对攻击者未来行为的预测,以找到最佳的响应策略。第二篇论文提出了一种基于动态游戏树的虚拟游戏(DFP)方法来描述玩家重复的交互式决策过程。每个参与者都将基于与对方决策过程(包括风险态度,目标)有关的不确定因素,考虑未来互动中的所有可能性。不是搜索整个游戏树,而是为两个玩家动态选择合适的未来时间范围。管理员不断跟踪对手的动作,预测未来可能发生的攻击的可能性,然后选择其最佳动作。第三篇论文介绍了一种优化模型,可以使计算机网络管理员的随机收益函数的确定性等价性最大化,以防御系统受到随机攻击。通过引入新变量,变换后的目标函数变得凹了。开发了一种特殊的优化算法,该算法需要计算单个变量单调方程的唯一解。第四篇论文是一本受邀的书,其中提出了一种离散时间随机控制模型,以捕获寻找防御者当前最佳动作的过程。在游戏的每个阶段,防御者的收益取决于攻击者和防御者的累积努力,由于不确定性,被视为随机变量。它们的某些等价物可以根据它们的第一时刻和第二时刻进行估算,这些时刻被选为动态系统的成本函数。基于差分动态规划(DDP),开发了一种基于在线,收敛,基于场景的主动防御(SPD)算法,以解决相关的最优控制问题。

著录项

  • 作者

    Luo Yi;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2011
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
  • 中图分类

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