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Two-sided learning in new keynesian models : dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

机译:新凯恩斯主义模型中的双向学习:动态,收敛(缺乏)和信息价值

摘要

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified
机译:本文研究了在新的凯恩斯主义框架中私人代理人和中央银行(双边学习)的学习的作用,在该框架中,经济双方对真实数据生成过程的知识都不对称且不完善。我们假设所有行动者都使用他们观察到的数据(对于不同的行动者集可能是不同的)来形成对真实经济模型未知方面的信念,使用他们的信念来决定行动,并通过一种方式修改这些信念。统计学习算法随着新信息的出现而变得可用。我们研究了该模型的短期动态,并得出了其政策建议,尤其是在中央银行沟通方面。我们证明了双向学习可以大大增加波动性和持久性,并以有意义的方式改变模型中变量的行为。我们的模拟没有收敛到对称的理性期望均衡,并且我们着重指出了一个使Marcet和Sargent(1989)的收敛结果无效的资料。最后,我们在学习模型中确定了中央银行交流的一个新方面:如果中央银行的模式被错误指定,则交流可能是有害的

著录项

  • 作者

    Matthes Christian;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2012
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类

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