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Trade–Exchange Rate Nexus in Sub-Saharan African Countries:udEvidence from Panel Cointegration Analysis

机译:撒哈拉以南非洲国家的贸易汇率联系: ud面板协整分析的证据

摘要

This study explores international trade–exchange rate interaction in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Based on partial equilibrium analysis, we develop two equations for export and import in which exchange rate, real gross domestic product (GDP), stock of capital and technology are the independent variables. The results from empirical analyses show that export and import are inelastic to changes in exchange rate. It follows that depreciation of currencies in the region may not have the expected results in view of the structure of the economies and export compositions. In the same vein, depreciation would not depress imports but only aggravate balance of payments. Thus, in the light of the findings, a policy of exchange rate stability that hinges on long-run considerations, capital accumulation and technological capacity as well as the maintenance of comprehensive coherent macroeconomic packages remains a critical factor in ensuring that exchange rate policy performs its central role as a trade facilitation tool.
机译:这项研究探讨了撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家中的国际贸易-汇率相互作用。在部分均衡分析的基础上,我们开发了两个进出口方程,其中汇率,实际国内生产总值,资本存量和技术是自变量。实证分析的结果表明,进出口对汇率的变化没有弹性。因此,鉴于经济结构和出口构成,该区域货币的贬值可能不会产生预期的结果。同样,贬值不会抑制进口,只会加剧国际收支。因此,根据调查结果,取决于长期考虑因素,资本积累和技术能力以及维持全面连贯的宏观经济计划的汇率稳定政策仍然是确保汇率政策执行其主要职责的关键因素。作为贸易便利化工具的核心作用。

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