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Social Trading: An Analysis of Herding Behavior, the Disposition Effect, and Informed Trading among Traders under a Scopic Regime

机译:社会交易:在隐秘政权下交易者之间的羊群行为,处置效应和知情交易分析

摘要

Social trading is a novel phenomenon that integrates social media into online trading, forming a social trading platform (STP) that allows participants to communicate and explicitly copy each other's trades in realtime. STPs are governed by a scopic environment, which is characterized by high information transparency and constant reciprocal scrutiny by participants. We categorize participants into two main groups: trade leaders, who execute original trades and refrain from explicit copying, and investors, who solely or partially copy trades. This dissertation focuses on the former. First, we investigate herding behavior using popular metrics developed by Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (1992) and Frey, Herbst, andWalter (2014). We nd levels of, and persistence in herding behavior that exceed those found in traditional nancial settings. We argue that this is due to the scopic environment governing STPs. Second, we examine the disposition effect of trade leaders. Building on the learning hypothesis discussed by Dhar and Zhu (2006), we propose that traders learn not only from their own trades, but also from the trades of others to adjust for this behavioral bias. We find ample evidence of a weaker disposition for trade leaders on a STP compared to traders on a traditional platform. This suggests that high information transparency erodes this bias. Third, we investigate the predictive ability of trade leaders in 16 currency pairs and three commodities. Using methods similar to Henriksson and Merton (1981) and Fishe and Smith (2012) we find that, although around 50% of traders trade profitably more than half of the time, very few possess the skill to do so in all market conditions. Nevertheless, our findings suggest that the scopic environment yields pro table short-term information that is contained in the order flow. The concluding chapter reviews the main findings of this thesis and discusses potential future work.
机译:社交交易是一种将社交媒体集成到在线交易中的新颖现象,形成了一个社交交易平台(STP),参与者可以通过该平台实时交流并明确复制彼此的交易。 STP受视觉环境的支配,其特点是信息透明性高,参与者不断进行相互检查。我们将参与者分为两大类:执行原始交易并避免显式复制的交易主管和仅复制或部分复制交易的投资者。本文主要针对前者。首先,我们使用由Lakonishok,Shleifer和Vishny(1992)和Frey,Herbst和Walter(2014)开发的流行指标来研究羊群行为。我们发现,羊群行为的水平和持续性超过了传统金融环境中的水平。我们认为这是由于支配STP的镜象环境所致。其次,我们考察了贸易领袖的处置效应。基于Dhar和Zhu(2006)讨论的学习假设,我们建议交易者不仅可以从自己的交易中学习,而且可以从其他人的交易中学习以适应这种行为偏向。我们发现有充分的证据表明,与传统平台上的交易者相比,STP上的交易领导者的处置能力较弱。这表明较高的信息透明度消除了这种偏见。第三,我们研究了贸易领袖对16种货币对和3种商品的预测能力。使用类似于Henriksson和Merton(1981)以及Fishe和Smith(2012)的方法,我们发现,尽管大约50%的交易员在超过一半的时间内进行了盈利交易,但很少有人具备在所有市场条件下进行交易的技能。但是,我们的发现表明,可视环境会产生订单流中包含的亲表短期信息。最后一章回顾了本论文的主要发现,并讨论了潜在的未来工作。

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  • 作者

    Gemayel Roland;

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  • 年度 2016
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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