International mediation in Northern Ireland : an analysis of the influence of international intermediaries on the process and the outcome of the Northern Irish peace process from 1994 to mid-2004

摘要

"The study of international mediation has received a lot of attention in recent political science. However, the main focus appears to lie on case studies dealing with the role of international intermediaries in conflicts between state. Less research seems to exist in the field of intra-national conflicts. The following article will deal with the role of international mediators in the Northern Ireland peace process during the ten years before mid-2004. It will examine whether international actors could foster perceptional de-escalation, or rather a 'de-escalation of minds' among the internal political conflict parties, rather than simply contributing to structural changes, e.g. a re-organisation of the inter-party relationship in the form of the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. Such a potential perceptional de-escalation would be crucial in order for structural changes to remain stable. Otherwise, it could be very likely that positive structural changes might be destroyed once again due to renewed escalation on the subjective level of conflict. The empirical analysis will be conducted by using a newly developed combination of Werner Link's concept of conflict, a modified escalation model based on the works of the authors Fisher and Keashly and of Jacob Bercovitch's 'contingency model' of international mediation. In line with this theoretical framework, the mediation efforts in Northern Ireland and their effects on the conflict parties' perceptions will be at the centre of a qulitative empirical case study. In the case of the internal conflict parties, a substantial speech analysis will show how the parties' perceptions, specifically their perceived interests, have changed on an escalation scale ranging from I to IV. In the case of the international mediators, the strategies used in the same period were put under closer scrutiny by conducting both a speech and an event analysis. The combined data will show whether or not international mediators did have a significant impact on the conflict parties' percptions and what implications this might have for international mediation in intra-national conflict situations." (author's abstract)