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A tutorial introduction to Bayesian inference for stochastic epidemic models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

机译:关于使用近似贝叶斯计算的随机流行病模型的贝叶斯推理的教程简介

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摘要

Likelihood-based inference for disease outbreak data can be very challenging due to the inherent dependence of the data and the fact that they are usually incomplete. In this paper we review recent Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for the analysis of such data by fitting to them stochastic epidemic models without having to calculate the likelihood of the observed data. We consider both non-temporal and temporal-data and illustrate the methods with a number of examples featuring different models and datasets. In addition, we present extensions to existing algorithms which are easy to implement and provide an improvement to the existing methodology. Finally, R code to implement the algorithms presented in the paper is available on https://github.com/kypraios/epiABC.
机译:由于数据固有的依赖性以及通常不完整的事实,因此基于可能性的疾病爆发数据推断可能非常具有挑战性。在本文中,我们回顾了最近的近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)方法,通过对这些数据进行随机流行模型拟合,而不必计算观测数据的可能性,从而对这些数据进行了分析。我们同时考虑了非时态数据和时态数据,并以大量具有不同模型和数据集的示例说明了这些方法。另外,我们提出了对现有算法的扩展,这些扩展易于实现,并且对现有方法进行了改进。最后,可通过https://github.com/kypraios/epiABC获得实现本文中介绍的算法的R代码。

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