Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are attracting the attention of researchers, industry, and governments for their potential of significantly increasing the safety level on the road. In order to understand whether VANETs can actually realize this goal, in this paper we analyze the dynamics of multihop emergency message dissemination in VANETs. Under a probabilistic wireless channel model that accounts for interference, we derive lower bounds on the probability that a car at distance d from the source of the emergency message correctly receives the message within time t. Besides d and t, this probability depends also on 1-hop channel reliability, which we model as a probability value p, and on the message dissemination strategy. Our bounds are derived for an idealized dissemination strategy which ignores interference, and for two provably near-optimal dissemination strategies under protocol interference. The bounds derived in the first part of the paper are used to carefully analyze the tradeoff between the safety level on the road (modeled by parameters d and t), and the value of 1-hop message reliability p. The analysis of this tradeoff discloses several interesting insights that can be very useful in the design of practical emergency message dissemination strategies.
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